Energy Descent Mitigation
The problem posed by peak oil and global warming is ultimately one of uncertainty. Both trends are creating changes in economies and ecosystems at the global, regional and local levels that we cannot easily predict. For local governments – responsible for managing public services and planning for future land use and transportation – these new sources of uncertainty create a complex scenario for risk management. What effect will a $200 barrel of oil have on materials prices? How will transportation behaviours change as fuel costs continue to rise? What local industries will be effected by reduced travel and escalating transportation costs. Will regional climate shifts effect the local water supply?
People, industries and communities are going to use less oil and natural gas in the near future. They will use less:
| • | Voluntarily in order to reduce carbon emissions or due to rising costs |
|---|---|
| • | In compliance with government carbon emission regulations |
| • | By force of oil production peaking |
Energy descent is a term used internationally to describe the aftermath of peak oil. In the peak oil scenario, oil production plateaus and then begins terminal decline. Rural Futures believes that before oil (and natural gas) production reach a peak, communities will use much less of both. Our economies and way of life will be greatly affected. We will experience either a shallow energy descent or a deep energy descent, depending on how soon and widely we begin the post-carbon age. The sooner we act, the shallower the descent. Mitigation now will cost less than mitigation later.
The challenge for local governments is not to predict the future, but to approach the future with the right tools and the right information.
Rural Futures is building a team that provides assistance to communities that enables them to navigate the uncertainties of peaking oil and gas production and climate change.
Email: futures@ruralfutures.ca